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There are four aces in a 52-card deck of playing cards. Prior to drawing a card from the deck, Mary Alice estimates the chance that she will draw an ace and win a prize. Over a series of trials, she did not draw an ace, so she replaced the card she had drawn, shuffled the deck, and drew a card. The graph above shows her estimates of how likely it was that she would draw an ace on the next trial. The pattern of Mary Alice's thinking reflects what psychological phenomenon?
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